Marlins: Going Forward

On Today August 8th the Florida Marlins are just 1 ½ games back in the hunt for the NL East crown and a birth into the playoffs. To say that this is a surprise is an understatement, especially for anyone who has followed this team on a regular basis.

Let’s take a look at what this team does well, and what it doesn’t to try and figure out if they can compete over the next 47 games.

Pitching

The Marlins starting pitching has been bad all year. Neutral of support the Marlins starting pitching has been last in the National league, and close to the bottom of the entire Major Leagues. But the caveat to this is that the rotation looks a lot different than it has all season, because the Marlins just got Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez back from injury. Also they have called up youngster Chris Volstad from the minors. Volstad (2.94 RA, 3.28 FIP) and Johnson (3.34, 4.04) have pitched very well of late. Ricky Nolasco has turned himself into a reliable middle of the rotation starter and if the other guys can continue to help, this staff can be a lot better than what they were running out there in June and July. The other optimistic piece to the rotation being better is that these arms are fresh, with none of the three new pieces having 120 IP yet to date.

Defense

This is where the talks turn ugly. The infield is extremely bad. Jorge Cantu is next to last in John Dewan’s Revised Zone Rating among eligible third basemen. Mike Jacobs is dead last at first base. Dan Uggla is in the bottom third at second base and Hanley Ramirez has been in the middle of the pack at SS. Although Hanley’s track record beyond this year says that could get worse. Teams with defense this bad don’t usually make the playoffs, and this steals some of the optimism from the new rotation because Chris Volstad and Josh Johnson are big guys who create a lot of downhill plane and groundballs. Their continued success somewhat hinges on the defense being better.

Offense

The Marlins can hit a lot of Home Runs. They are second only to the Philadelphia Phillies in that respect among NL teams. The Marlins also strikeout more often than any other team. Both are signs of a young team with a lot of pop in their bats.

They are sixth in OPS and sixth in runs scored among NL teams. We all know about Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla but Jorge Cantu is sporting a 24.5 VORP. Jeremy Hermida has been on a tear since the All-Star break albeit in a small sample size but they need him to get on base a lot as long as Fredi Gonzalez has him hitting second. The bottom of the order doesn’t boast a lot of production so the guys at the top are going to have to stay consistent.

Outlook

Going forward it is hard to predict that the Marlins are going to continue their unexpected success. They are still being outscored on the season by 19 runs and that doesn’t bode well for projection over the next 47 games. However, the rotation is a different rotation and if they can be consistent down the stretch that will change some projections. They can still score runs and they did just win a big series in Philadelphia this week. I can’t say I expect them to pull it out over the Phillies and Mets but I expect them to be in the race down to the last couple weeks.