11.3.09

Fidel Castro Loves Sabermetrics

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/03/11/im-a-fidel-player-too/#more-1712

Yeah!

6.3.09

Sights and Smells of my Kitchen now



Braised pork stew with red wine, chicken stock, herbs, potatoes, carrots, onions, garlic

UPDATE: absolutely delicious and some of the most tender pork I've ever eaten. The layers of flavor were evident. Worth the time and effort.

Preliminary Reactions to Projections

AL East: The Yankees were the favorite by about a game, and I adjusted down a couple games because of Alex Rodriguez's injury. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are the 3 best teams in baseball on paper. They are all within the the margin of error to win the division

Al Central: I expected it to be the Indians in the lead, with a conglomerate of chasers. I can see every team in the division pushing, but I doubt the Indians will have the bad luck they experienced last year and fully expect them to win the division. Grady Sizemore, for the win.

AL West: I think the Angel's and A's are both seriously in contention and the Rangers are so young that they could make some noise. I halfway expect the A's to take the division honestly because I think Beane will do something at the trade deadline.

NL East: The Mets are the favorite on paper, again. I adjusted the Marlins up because all the pitchers are young, and if they can stay healthy they will be good. Also, I am a homer. Nationals surprised me, and I adjusted them down a little because they have yet to show me they can do it.

NL Central: Cubs, then crapshoot! I expect the Pirates may be better than my projections. One of the teams I think may outdo them, but again they may dump something at the deadline and fall to where I have them.

NL West: I'm counting on a breakout from some D'Backs hitters. But it is the closest top to bottom division. I like the Giants quite a bit, they may get to 81 wins or so, and if the Backs don't breakout and the Dodgers have some injuries....

5.3.09

Baseball Projections 2009

For my projected standing I use aggregate data of different projection systems that I trust, and I adjust them slightly using anecdotal evidence of scouting reports, and the games I watch. Projections have notoriously had problems with young pitching for instance, so sometimes scouting reports can help when adjusting slightly. Remember these are early projections and the standard deviation on these is like 5 games. Once the ESPN experts come out with their projected standings I hope to compare before and after the season. These also include the A-Rod injury (adjusted for missing about 30 games), and the Manny signing.

American League

Red Sox: 97-65
Yankees: 95-67
Rays: 92-70
Orioles: 75-87
Blue Jays: 74-88

Indians: 87-75
Tigers: 82-80
Twins: 82-80
Royals: 74-88
White Sox: 73-89

Angels: 86-76
A’s: 83-79
Rangers: 76-86
Mariners: 73-89

National League

Mets: 89-73
Phillies: 87-75
Braves: 83-78
Marlins: 81-81
Nationals: 70-92

Cubs: 90-72
Cardinals: 83-79
Reds: 81-81
Brewers: 80-82
Astros: 69-93
Pirates: 68-94

Diamondbacks: 87-75
Dodgers: 86-76
Giants: 78-84
Padres: 76-86
Rockies: 74-88

1.3.09

Like I said returning and this Blog.

First of all. College baseball, FSU has lost one game 10-9, playing teams that can't hold their jock. but they are holding their own. They will be plenty fine offensively. On defense they will be at least mediocre, and probably bad, which will bear down on Parker, Gilmartin, and Gast.

Spring training is starting. I'm starting to put my numbers together. Gathering forecasts from really smart people (and doing a little adjustments myself.) I consulted a friend on fantasy baseball today and he treated me like I worked for a pay website. It was cool. But I'm starting to realize the Marlins may be a 75-79 win team. It sucks. Every projection has us around 75-77 wins.

Young pitchers are hard to project. If Johnson, Sanchez, and Milller outlive their 50th percentile projection, the Marlins will compete. But, if there is any regression, and the young guys don't pull through, we will be back in the bottom of the NL East.

(The Nats have the boom or bust lineup, Milledge, Dukes, Johnson, etc.)