29.9.08

Bad baseball writing, and the people like me who can't stand it.

Buster Olney: So there might be one tangible thing the Mets need to fix: They need to get David Wright … well, right. They need to help him work through his apparent anxiety in high-pressure situations. Big-picture: The Mets didn't make the playoffs because of their bullpen failures, as Jack Curry writes, but over the weekend, they mustered a total of five runs, and Wright had a whole lot to do with that. He cares so deeply that he puts enormous pressure on himself, and this trait seems to wreck him in big spots. He seems to leap at the ball when he's trying to hit with the game on the line. They need to address this.

I don't know how they do it. Maybe they get Wright to start talking to a sports psychologist, someone who might get the kind of help that has aided John Smoltz and Matt Garza and others. Wright is a cornerstone player who will be an MVP candidate in most years of his career, so the notion of trading him is silly. But they have to help him find a way to relax -- and if the team's best player relaxes, this will, in turn, take pressure off the rest of the team.

Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus: The phenomenon of a team's best player or players taking an inordinate amount of the blame for their failures is one that Bill James noted back in the Abstract years, and it's even truer today in a more hypercompetitive media. Good Lord, on ESPN Insider today Buster Olney is suggesting that David Wright needs to see a sports psychiatrist to "work through his apparent anxiety in high-pressure situations." Wright certainly deserves his share of the blame given his part in a lineup that managed only five runs over their last three games, but he did go 4-for-9 and hit .340/.416/.577 in September, including .462/.559/.769 in the seven games prior to the Marlins series. Carlos Delgado went 2-for-11, where's his Rx for a shrink, Buster? Sheesh

27.9.08

Fandom. The end of the season.

I am a realist. A lot of baseball writers would call me an idiot for caring way too much about statistical analysis of the game. But, I am a fan at heart. I am not a statistician who just tries to make baseball a game of numbers. It actually offends me harshly when people who write for huge newspapers (but really, newspapers will be gone in the next few years) and Sports Illustrated, and other large publications use their position to discount what people like me have to say. I am in fact just someone who spends hours and hours trying to understand a game that I truly love. The same game that baseball writers all around the country speak about. I choose to do so by reading about and understanding different statistics.

I grew up looking at RBI, and BA, and assuming that the people who had the highest numbers in these stats were the best players. I have now learned that this is not the truth, because newer (better) statistics are able to separate what certain players contribute without their teammates.

Some people will say that this takes away from the team aspect of the game. That it detracts from the nature of the game and doesn't account for humanistic qualities. Certainly I disagree to this notion.

I have watched at least 100 of the Marlins games this season. I have watched countless other games that do not include my favorite team. I love baseball. Sports fans that I know and love often don't understand the almost chaotic way that I follow the sport. However there is an attack on anyone who would rather use advanced statistics over traditional ones. Many of the more palatable baseball writers that I read have obviously made peace with this. However I have a hard time with people accusing anyone who loves learning about the game in a different way than them of caring only about numbers and not the game.

This brings me to the Marlins. They are outplaying their pyth record (or assumed record because of runs scored vs. runs against, which is proven a better predictor of actual record) by quite a bit. They have locked up a winning record and are going to finish behind the Phillies and Mets, but not that far back considering pre-season projections. However, I love it. I am not some stat freak who would rather see the teams with the most predictable seasons always win. There is luck involved in a 162 games season. There is clutch hitting invloved. However, clutch hitting is not (although many writers will disagree) a repeatable skill.

I am still happy with our season. We played hard. We improved our defense somewhat. We hit the ball hard. Our rotation looks very promising if it is somewhat capable of staying healthy. A winning season was not expected but yet we still found a way to do so, meaning that all my watching had a pretty positive result total. This Marlins team has provided a ton of great moments. From Amezega's homerun fresh off a long rain delay to give us the lead, to Hanley's huge season that will go mostly overlooked, to Uggla looking horrible in teh All-Star games, it will be remembered fondly.

How it won't be remembered is just as a list of numbers. Neither will the live games I was able to watch against Tampa Bay with friends. Neither will be the countless hours I have spent reading Rob Neyer, Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, and other intelligent baseball sites. I wish just one baseball writer of the BBWAA would read this to learn what I mean.

24.9.08

Ultimate Meatball Sub



I hope there is no copyright infringement on that tagline because of Tyler Florence. You can see my GRE study book in the background of the picture! okay now onto the food.

So Jon (roommate mentioned many times in my food posts) doesn't like meatball subs because they make his bread soggy. He likes meatballs, and subs, just not together. I set out to change his mind.

The bread is fresh baked hoagie roll from Publix Supermarkets, and they are delicious. I don't really bake so....yeah. The meatballs are beef with an 80/20 fat ratio and they were roasted in the oven at 425 degrees until they are still pretty pink and soft in the middle.

2 lbs ground beef
2 eggs
bread crumbs to hold moisture
3 garlic cloves
salt, pepper
3/4 of one medium orange bell pepper finely diced.

The sauce was a pretty basic strained plum tomato and garlic sauce with beef stock. It was simmered with merlot and a little bit of (gasp! store bought) vodka sauce to thicken it. Then I put mozzarella chesse on the bread and put it under the broiler to the desired meltiness, braised the meatballs in the sauce to finish them and assembled the sandwich.

Finish the sandwich with some fresh basil. That leaf actually got sprinkled all over after the picture.

Call him a convert.

23.9.08

Great baseball Writers and Jason Bartlett the Pear.

I have been studying for the GRE, hoping to get into graduate school for the spring. Since I started way too late, I will not be nearly as prepared as I wish I would be. However I can't sit and study all the time, I'm just not that type of studier, I have to pace myself and hope that I got enough of it in. When not at work, and not studying I have been keeping myself busy with sports, fantasy sports, and as always cooking. Today was a good day for baseball reading with a great simple article from Joe Posnanski (who may be the best baseball writer in all the land), and food with a meatball sub for the ages. First thing first. Joe Blog. I'm going to copy the whole article and then just basically agree with him a little.

Jason Bartlett has an 83 OPS+.

Jason Bartlett has a .328 on-base percentage and has struck out three times more than he has walked.

Jason Bartlett has a .358 slugging percentage and has hit 1.00 home runs this season.

Jason Bartlett has missed 32 baseball games, which accounts for his relatively unimpressive total of 43 runs scored and 34 runs batted in.

Jason Bartlett ranks 11th among “everyday shortstops” with an .825 zone rating.

Jason Bartlett ranks 12th among “everyday shortstops“ with 4.22 range factor.

Jason Bartlett ranks 17th among ”everyday shortstops“ with a .969 fielding percentage.

Jason Bartlett scores a minus-1 on the Dewan Plus/Minus fielding system, meaning he has made one fewer play than the average shortstop in baseball this year.

The Tampa Bay Chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America voted Jason Bartlett the Tampa Bay Rays most valuable player in this magical season of 2008.

Your honor. The defense rests.


This goes to show that Jason Bartlett is in fact a pear not a baseball player. Okay bad food-baseball joke, but it does show that he is well below average for a SS in today's game. His OPS+ says about 17% worse than average actually. However maybe by the hand of God the Rays won all those games and he was actually their best player lets check. Posnanski, because he is better at this than me used a bunch of fancy stats to show how bad Bartlett Pear is, but for offense I'm going to use my favorite VORP because to me, it is the best overall offensive metric, although OPS+ is very good I still think it doesn't value OBP enough. It may though. Oh well, here we go.

Evan Longoria 33.8
Carlos Pena 33.0
B.J. Upton 30.2
Akinori Iwamura 17.3
Dioner Navaro 15.1
Cliff Floyd 14.7
Eric Hinske 11.8
Jason Bartlett Pear 11.2

He is the 8th best offensive player on his team this year. That's probably only because the next two guys (Carl Crawford and Gabe Gross) lose production points for being corner outfielders, and production is so much more at a premium at shortstop, so his replacement level is way lower. None the less, not even close to most productive offensive player.

As Posnanski alluded to Jason Bartlett ranks only ahead of Edgar Rentaria and Stephen Drew at SS. I used John Dewan's Revised Zone Rating (which handles out of zone plays seperately, and doesn't give the player extra credit for double plays)and he came in at .808. Khalil Greene is about league average at .835.

But wait. There are plenty of pitchers on Tampa Bay who are above Bartlett Pear in VORP as well. Included in them are James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Andy Sonnanstine, and Dan Wheeler.

As you can see I went through way too much work to prove a point that had already been proven. However there was no hand of God that allowed a team with a below average SS as their best player to make the playoffs. Actually there are about 14 or so Rays having a better season, give or take a player who is close. Further proof the BBWAA is ridiculous and should be stopped.

18.9.08

MVP Bullcrap

Everyone who follows or writes about baseball has been talking about the MVP in the National league. PTI just gave Ryan Howard a 60% chance of winning it because "if you look at the numbers that matter, 50 HR and 150 RBI they are there" and "he should win it if his team makes the playoffs. I don't want to dig up the same arguments that anyone who has a brain that has an iota of baseball understanding has said, but I will anyways.

Value, as in the middle word of MVP, is not restricted to teams that make the playoffs. If I am the best player, the most valuable player in the league and the rest of my team stinks, I still have value. So much so that other teams would probably trade the farm for me and pay me a ton of money to move to Boston, or New York, or LA. Whatever games we did win were probably mostly because of me. The money that fans pay for the game are probably to see me. Value, lots, tons, boatloads of value without being on a team that makes the playoffs. Sort like Albert Pujols I guess.

If you want to read about how poor a measure of baseball value RBI's are read something by FireJoeMorgan.com, or Joe Posnanski, or Keith Law of ESPN, or just read Moneyball and start there. But basically the people who finish with the most RBI most of the time are the people who have the most RBI opportunities. It is a statistic that measures teams, not individuals. It might help Ryan Howard because he has Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley on base all the time. Now onto fun with numbers and why Ryan Howard's name shouldn't even come up, WOO!

National League Players with higher VORP

I was going to make a list but there were too many players. He is 33rd just behind Randy Winn and Mark Derosa. And just ahead of the National league only statistics of Jason Bay and Big Marky Tex. This is not to say that Ryan Howard isn't valuable. Just that there are a lot of people playing better baseball. Being a first baseman, he is expected to be able to hit for power. It is easier to get power production out of a first baseman than say, a shortstop. His line of .249/.337/.546 is really good. But Albert Pujols is currently sitting at .354/.468/.640. They play the same position. If you believe the most important things to scoring runs are getting on base, and hitting the ball hard (which I do) Albert Pujols is lightyears ahead of Howard. Hanley Ramirez is currently .296/.398/.538 while stealing 33 bases and playing the much more important defensive position of SS.

Then there is the other half of the diamond, the defense. I mentioned that Pujols and Howard play the same position. But that is only mostly true. They both are by name a first baseman. However, Pujols' Revised Zone Rating (amount of plays made in the zone for the position played expressed as a decimal) is .842 while making 49 plays out of the zone. Ryan Howard's is .766 while only making 31 plays out of the zone. According to Baseball Prospectus that is worth 23 runs, ON DEFENSE ALONE. 23 runs is worth about two wins over 162 game season. Did I mention that Albert Pujols is a much better hitter. Just for kicks Hanley is about 5 runs better than Howard, playing a much harder position and being a much more impressive hitter. As a Marlins fan I love to see Hanley playing about league average defense this year.

Back to Pujols, if Howard wins over him there should be an investigation into the voting. After looking at defensive and offensive metrics here is a list of players who are having a better full season in Howard's own division.

Hanley Ramirez
Chase Utley
Jose Reyes
David Wright
Carlos Beltran
Chipper Jones
Brian McCann
Dan Uggla
Jimmy Rollins
Christian Guzman!
Carlos Delgado

IN HIS DIVISION. THIRD ON HIS TEAM. The same argument also goes for Delgado, he is just slightly better than Howard.

14.9.08

NFL Announcing is horrible.

On NFL Countdown today Emmitt Smith called Matt Cassel by the name of Matt Hassel at least 4 times in the span of less than a paragraph of analysis. The same Matt Cassel who everyone has talked about until we all knew that he hadn't started since high school, he played baseball at USC, his brother plays for the Astros, etc. However Emmitt neglected to learn his name.

And as soon as I decide to stop watching the Marlins all the time and following everything they do for the rest of this season, they go out and win 5 straight games. Cool, I'm pumped about that.

Sweet potatoes.



Unabashed, I love sweet potatoes. Most of the time I just enjoy them baked with a little butter, salt, pepper, red pepper, and sugar. However I wanted to start using them in different ways. A couple months ago I made a jalapeno and sweet potato mash that I thoroughly enjoyed. Last week I made a dish that will probably stay in the main rotation for quite a while. Initially they were sweet potato pancakes, but my roommate bought a deep fryer for the kitchen (a post about this is going to come soon) and I made them as smaller fritters. Same batter just smaller and less pancake shaped.

2 sweet potatoes
2 eggs whites
2 roasted jalapenos
2 ears of sweet corn
a pinch of kosher salt
approx 1 1/2 tbsp cracked black pepper
bread crumbs
sugar to taste

Begin by baking the sweet potatoes until fully cooked and then remove the meat from the inside into a large mixing bowl. Add all of the ingredients except the bread crumbs and combine. Add the bread crumbs in small amounts until the batter is no longer noticeably wet. It will thicken up and you will be able to handle it in your hands fairly easily without it sticking. Form into small pancakes (and pan fry) or fritters a little smaller than a golf ball (and deep fry.)

8.9.08

Summer lunch at my brother's house.

When my mom came up to Tallahassee from Ft.Myers I made lunch for Gi (my girlfriend), Kristen (my sister in law), Sandy (my mom) and myself (me.) I wanted to use lots of vegetables because Kristen, and to a smaller effect my mom love vegetables. Not to say they don't enjoy meat, I just wanted to keep it light. I prepared two things. Asparugus that had been wrapped in proscuitto, and a jicama salad with shrimp.

Aspargus:

I par boiled the green vegetable leaving a bit of a bite to it. Afterwards I shock it in an ice water bath to stop the cooking. Then I wrapped it with the cured ham. After the bundles were assembled I sprinkled them with salt and fresah ground black pepper and sauteed them until they were warm all the way through and the proscuitto was crisp on both sides. It looked like this.



The salad was made of red onion ( I prefer it slightly cooked and in thin long strips, however I left it raw), jicama that has been cut into thick julienne cuts, cucumber that is cut just like the jicama, and shrimp. I used pink shrimp that were 31-35 size. The shrimp are sauteed with garlic before the salad is assembled and shocked just like the asparagus was.

The last part of the salad is the dressing which is a red wine vinegarette. It consists of red wine vinegar, extra virgin olive oil, spicy mustard (I used Boar's Head brand), honey, salt, pepper, and celery salt. I didn't measure any of it but just made it to my taste. Vinegarettes are simple one you learn them so practice is just the key. Drizzle the oil in after everything else has been whisked well.

2.9.08

September call-ups: Marlins

So it is September, and my team is out of the chase for all intents and purposes. However this is the time of year that rosters get expanded so teams can go to a 40 man roster. Teams usually call up as few people as they can, because of Major League service time, and starting arbitration clocks, and whatnot. The Marlins called up a bunch of also-rans that we have seen pulled up a few times for spot starts. The likes of Andino, Carrol, Miller, De La Cruz, and McPherson get nobody extremely excited. Although I did just learn McPherson was leading minor leagues with 42 home runs.

I fully expected Cameron Maybin to get called up. I was in the line of thinking that getting potential abover average everyday players some time in September was a good idea. I have no idea what his Major League experience is as far as arbitration, but I know he is yet to see the light of day in Florida. I do know that he has been up and down this season but is posting a respectable .375 OBP, and .831 OPS, and it has jumped to .898 since the all-star break, all while playing CF. Cameron still may get called up, and there are tons of things he still needs to work on (like his 120 Ks vs. 60 BB.) But I think that if we expect him to fill the hole at center that is currently filled by 4th/5th outfielders, we need to see what he can do in the bigs.