20.5.09

This is getting fun! Steve Phillips is stupid!

Update: a much better writer took Steve Phillips to task for SI.com http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/05/19/carlos.beltran/index.html

From Steve's chat:

I would take Torii Hunter, Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, and Nate McLouth over Beltran, and use the financial difference to improve the team in other ways. Beltran isn't a $17 million dollar a year player. He just doesn't have the kind of impact for that kind of money.

Okay so let's look at how good the people he would rather have over Beltran are.

Torii Hunter: Age-33, 106 OPS+, -2.3 UZR/150, 2008 WAR 2.3 worth 10.4M, 16.M Salary
Grady Sizemore: Age-26, 122 OPS+, 6.7 UZR/150, 2008 WAR 6.3 worth 28.3M, 3.2M Salary
Curtis Granderson:Age-28, 118 OPS +, 6.0 UZR/150, 2008 WAR 3.8 worth 17M, 1M Salary
Nate McLouth: Age-27, 111 OPS +, -11 UZR/150, 2008 WAR 3.6 worth 16.1M, .4M Salary

Now Beltran: Age-32, 119 OPS +, 3.7 UZR/150, 2008 WAR 6.7 worth 30M, 18.6M Salary

As you can see Beltran put up more wins above replacement(WAR)than any of the other players last season. But let's delve into it a little further.

Torii Hunter used to be a great defensive CF but is no longer, his career UZR is actually negative now. He is older than Beltran and not nearly the hitter. Only a person who has no knowledge of statistics or really baseball would want an older player who is a lesser hitter, lesser fielder, and makes about the same amount.

Grady Sizemore I would legitimately rather have than Beltran. He is at the same level of play all around and is younger and has a lower salary. Good job Steve, you got one right.

Curtis Granderson you could make a case for because his defense is legitimately great, and he has show the ability to hit well. He has less power than Beltran and doesn't steal bases as well, and has not been as consistently great. He has one season (2007) where he had 7.4 WAR, however no other season has he gone over 3.8. He is an excellent player but not in the Beltran class. The only real argument would be on salary and age. With the Mets in win now mode this would be stupid.

Lastly Nate Mclouth. Nate had a good hitting season last year and got lots of people excited about him. He has never in 4 other seasons been even an average major league baseball player. Despite the gold glove last year every single defensive metric thinks that he is one of the worst everyday fielders in MLB. It is so silly and short sighted to even think he and Carlos Beltran are on the same planet. He is sort of young, actually right at peak age, which means more of those sub-average years to come than the 3.5 WAR years.

I hope I illuminated how stupid Steve Phillips is. If not look at how good Carlos Beltran is.

He is the most effecient basestealer in the history of the game. Meaning he has the highest percentage of successful steal attempts of any player with more than 200 steals.

His WAR the last 3 years: 6.7, 4.9, 7.0

The only outfielder who has produced more value than him since 2002 is Barry Bonds. Not worth his contract Steve? Sheesh!

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