18.5.09

Sports analysis, where you can say whatever you want and nobody will call you on it.

Magic Johnson played basketball at Michigan State, then for the Los Angeles Lakers. He was extremely good at it, I consider him the second greatest player in the history of the game. What he is not good at is basketball analysis. This can be seen with many ex-players (Emmitt Smith!), because players aren't especially good at describing how they did what they did, or who does it the best today. They often overweigh things like "heart" and "grit" instead of just saying that one guy is a much more talented player than another. Also Magic Johnson (and every analyst ever) likes to make crazy predictions that the statistical evidence does not suggest is possible (John Kruk said Randy Johnson would win 30 games at the beginning of one season). I like making crazy predictions too, I did it before the baseball season, but at least I looked at statistical trends beforehand.

So what was Magic Johnson's assessment of the Nuggets-Lakers series. "I think it will be a highly contentious series that will go seven games and each team will score over 100 points every game."

Let's break that into parts.

I think it will be highly contentious

Ok, both good teams. I'll buy it.

I think it will go seven games

They are the #1 and #2 seeds in the west so that sounds good.

Both teams will score over 100 points each game

Umm, huh? That sounds ridiculous, let me spend 30 seconds looking up their past macthups this year.


102-116 Lakers, ok so he is doing well
97-104 Lakers, pretty close but nope (also was before the Billups trade and the Nuggets slowed their posession rate)
90-104 Lakers, Whiff...
90-79 Nuggets, WOW not even close

2 comments:

Kellan said...

Looks like he has showed you...so far

Truth said...

He sure has through 2 games.